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Welcome to the Race Analyst - an exciting new horse racing website
AUSTRALIA, USA, HONG KONG, UK - Class Ratings
Horses to Follow - Saturday Selections - Par Times - Horse Racing Tips
This site provides information and advice on Horse racing - Worldwide.
WHAT MAKES A TOP RACEHORSE
The best racehorses from all over the world are basically the same , most have natural speed, acceleration and stamina, the 3 most important qualities required to win. Of course not all are created equal with some having more of one quality than another, but these are the main ingredients a top class galloper needs, to be separated from the average and or weak majority of runners.
NATURAL SPEED - simply put, a racehorse is born with natural speed or is not, some have terrific speed for 5f only or less, these are weak speed only types and should be avoided. The best horses can sustain high speed for longer, but even they have a distance limit.
Natural speed combined with the ability of a horse to settle anywhere in a race is very important and means the jockey can position this horse to his advantage depending on the pace of the race.
ACCELERATION - again this is a natural born quality only the top horses posess, the more the acceleration the better, especially the ability to accelerate off a fast speed - dynamic
STAMINA - the ability to find something more at the end of a race under pressure, if required , can be described as depth or having petrol left, and when combined with the natural speed and acceleration, completes the makeup of a champion.
MAJOR FACTORS OF A HORSE RACE
The most important issues that determine the result of a horse race are :
1 - Class
2 - Pace
3 - Distance
Their are other minor factors that have an effect, but these are the top three.
CLASS - ability or merit , whatever you call it, is certainly number one - Horses with lots of class can overcome setbacks in a race, a poor ride, bad luck , unsuitable track conditions and most importantly they can win against the pace of the race.
PACE - very important, the result of most races is determined by the pace of the race - a fast pace suits backrunners who enjoy easy runs well back in the field with cover, while not helping on pace runners who are doing all the work. On the other hand slow pace races are the opposite, helping on pace runners and disadvantaging backrunners. If you can accurately work out the likely pace before the race you will have a betting advantage.
If you know precisely what the pace of the race was after the race has been run, you can see which horses were advantaged and which horses were disadvantaged.
DISTANCE - underrated factor - needs to be seriously considered when doing the form , some horses are champs over 6f and chumps over 7f , but most punters don't understand the importance of distance.
The pace of the race can also have an affect on whether a horse can get the distance - a slow pace for a frontrunner wiil help it, but if it hasn't got the stamina required and the pace is solid or fast, this horse will hit the wall before the finish.
OTHER FACTORS - track conditions can be important on some days , however with the increasing number of new synthetic all weather tracks emerging all over the world , the number of rain affected meetings are dwindling and could one day become irrelevant. Turf and dirt tracks effected by rain are likely to be biased either to the inside or the outside and need to be studied closely on the day.
Some horses can handle wet tracks and some cannot, others don't handle it as 2yo's but gradually get better as they get older.
The importance of weight in horseracing has for many years been considered a very important factor, but these days the weight issue is well known and offers no advantage for the punter.
Their is also a very strong argument that suggests weight is not as important over short distances up to 6F - 1200m and has more effect over further.
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
In Australia and New Zealand each year there are over 20,000 thoroughbred horse races run on more than 140 different tracks.
The classes that make up these race meetings are many and varied with over 600 Group and Listed races alone, plus around 90 standard classes per state, with over 1100 classes in total.
The main races in Australia are the Melbourne Cup, the Cox Plate , the Caulfield Cup and the BWW Stakes, whilst in New Zealand the Kelt Capital Stakes is the main feature.
USA
The USA has over 50,000 thoroughbred horse races per year, easily the largest amount of any country in the world and more than 100 different racetracks. There are around 500 standard class categories and nearly 2,000 graded stakes or black type races run each year. The high point of American racing is the Triple crown events, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes all for 3 year olds.
HONG KONG
In Hong kong there are 2 major racetracks, Shah tin and Happy valley.
The class system is very simple compared to other countries and is easy to work with. Prize money is huge, (the highest average per race in the world) attracting the top jockeys and some of the best International horses. Best races include the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup and the Audemars Piquet QE11 Cup which are certainly world class events.
United Kingdom
British racing conducts over 5,500 flat races and more than 3,000 jumps races per year with around 300 group and listed races amongst them.
The Class system is relatively uncomplicated with about 250 diffferent basic levels. There are 5 classic group 1 races - 2000 guineas, 1000 guineas, the Oaks, Derby and the St. ledger.
Class Rating in Lengths
After Many years of studying form and analyzing thousands of horse races
from the USA , UK , Australia and all over the world I have gradually developed a very accurate way of classing these races.
Based on sectional and overall par times, prize money , age group, distance, track and time of year, all races are given a rating figure in lengths, the higher the figure , the better the class.
This enables you to easily see the real difference between the classes, giving you a big advantage over others.
This information is essential for serious punters , owners , trainers and all racing enthusiasts.
No more guesswork.
These base rating figures are perfect if you want to do your own ratings.
How to use Class Ratings
The best way to use Class Ratings is as a base rating figure, in other words you give each race from yesterdays meeting a figure from my corresponding class charts. Then you decide what the class strength for each particular race was on this particular day. By this I mean you decide how much merit or lack of merit is in each race compared to average for that class. My class rating figures tell you what is average for each class in lengths , so by comparing race times on the day and historically you can get a good idea if the race is average for that class on the day, below average for that class, or above average for that class. If you have a race on this day that has a class rating of 16 and you consider the race was 2 lengths above average, the class rating for this race on this day becomes 18, you might consider this race is average for its class, in this case the class rating figure stays at 16 , you might consider this race was weak for this class by 1 length , then the class rating figure becomes 15 etc. You now have the Final Race Rating, base class rating minus or plus race strength equals the Final Race Rating. The horse that won the race gets this rating figure, second by 2 lengths gets FRR minus 2 , 3rd by 1 length gets FRR minus 3 etc.
You now have to consider what happened in the race and decide which horses (if any) deserve compensation in lengths for being wide, checked or blocked, badly ridden etc. Then you have your Final Rating Figure for each horse which is a dynamic and accurate form rating for future use. The fact that these ratings are in lengths means you can easily add or subtract any perceived advantages or disadvantages in weights and conditions at their next start.
All Australian, New Zealand, Hong kong, USA and UK classes come in an easy to read color coded excel format covering everything from a maiden to the best races in the country , instantly see the exact difference (in lengths) between classes including all group, listed and stakes races, as well as 2 and 3yo's.
The race analyst
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